Test of Highs Short Lived as Reversal Lower Builds

The USD/MXN remains within sight of its lower values after last week’s brief run higher as a new week of trading begins and speculators consider their options.

As of this writing the USD/MXN is near the 17.14500 ratio, after a week in which a higher mark of 17.26525 was tested on Friday, but then curiously started to reverse lower.  As today’s trading begins the USD/MXN is still above its lows which were produced early last week which tested the 17.04300 to 17.07000 values. Yet, after a week that saw the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman warn of more interest rates to come, the USD/MXN still remains within its lowest depths.

Yes, the USD/MXN did move higher last week and this may have given bullish short-term speculators the ability to take advantage of upwards momentum momentarily.  However, the ability to sell off from highs late last week, which were not able to be maintained, may spark the belief the USD/MXN has additional room to traverse lower. And this is where it could get very dangerous for speculators because while downside momentum has been solid over the long term, being overly ambitious regarding lower targets could prove to be costly when unrealistic targets are used.

Cautious conditions may prevail globally today as financial institutions try to weigh the weekend events in Russia and their potential implications.  While USD/MXN traders may believe this is an unrelated event for the currency pair, the energy sector is a large part of the created volume traded for the Mexican Peso, so some nervousness may be witnessed. However, the trading of the USD/MXN early this morning has been rather tranquil and this is a good early sign.

If the USD/MXN is able to prove current short-term technical resistance is durable near the 17.15500 to 17.16500 levels, this could spur on more potential selling of the currency pair. There is not much in the way of economic data coming from the U.S today, which will spur on current behavioral sentiment and traders should be ready for a rather cautious day ahead as financial institutions likely take on conservative modes. While the U.S Federal Reserve has made it clear they intend on continuing to fight inflation, this has been their mantra for over a year now and the USD/MXN has continued to trend lower.

• Traders should not be overly ambitious in the near term and look for quick-hitting trades that take advantage of momentary price trends.
• The USD/MXN remains locked within the lower boundaries of its long-term price range and the trend has remained solid.
• Traders looking for lower momentum cannot be blamed, but proper risk management should be used at all times.

Current Resistance: 17.14800

Current Support: 17.13900

High Target: 17.18100

Low Target: 17.09700

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