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GBP/USD Forecast: Shows Resilience Despite Fluctuations


  • The GBP/USD experienced a slight pullback during Friday’s trading session but quickly found buyers at this dip.
  • Notably, the 1.2650 level remains a point of interest, with previous resistance now acting as support.
  • The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average is approaching this level, currently hovering around 1.25. The market has exhibited a strong uptrend, leading to back-and-forth price action.

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It is important to consider the recent surprising move by the Bank of England, which raised interest rates by 50 basis points instead of the anticipated 25. This decision is likely to contribute to ongoing market noise. However, given the tight monetary policy stances of both the Bank of England and other central banks, the market is expected to continue to exhibit choppy behavior. Nevertheless, caution regarding position sizing is advisable in light of these market conditions.

In the event of a breakdown below the 50-Day EMA, the market could decline toward the 200-Day EMA, situated around the 1.2350 level. This level previously acted as support and will likely attract buying interest if tested. A further breakdown below this support would require external factors to drive the market significantly lower.

This market is characterized by significant noise and potential fluctuations, which traders need to anticipate. However, given the current circumstances, downward pressure is unlikely to outweigh upward momentum. It is essential to remember that global uncertainty may drive capital toward the US dollar. Nevertheless, the prevailing trend remains on the upside.

The British pound demonstrated resilience despite minor fluctuations, finding support after an initial pullback. The 1.2650 level, now supporting, continues attracting market attention. The interest rate hike by the Bank of England contributes to ongoing market noise, necessitating caution when considering position sizes. Support levels, such as the 200-Day EMA around 1.2350, will likely generate buying interest if tested. It is important to remain aware of external factors that could impact the market significantly. While volatility and noise persist, the overall trend favors upward movement. Traders should remain vigilant, adapting their strategies to navigate the market effectively.

However, there is almost no chance that you can chase at this point, and therefore it is likely that we need to see a bit of value coming into the picture. The swap will continue to be a major factor going forward.

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