The Stability of the Lira Ahead

Currently, the pair is trading around 23.60 levels since the middle of last week’s trading, which is higher than the support levels that are concentrated at 23.50 and 23.00, respectively. 

The risk is 0.50%.

• Entering a buy order pending order from the 23.00 level.
• Place a stop loss point to close below the 22.80 level.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 23.50.

• Entering a sell order pending order from the 24.00 level.
• The best points for placing a stop loss close the highest level of 24.15.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the 23.50 support level.

The trading of the TRY/USD stabilized during early trading on Thursday morning. The Turkish currency maintained its stability against the US dollar for the second week in a row after a series of declines that continued over several weeks, which accelerated during the Turkish presidential elections and beyond, especially with the victory of President Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the owner of the non-traditional school in economics. The Turkish currency recorded record declines, losing about 16% of its value within two weeks, after the newly appointed Turkish Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, requested the Central Bank not to defend the price of the lira, amid changes in the expected monetary and financial policy with the assumption of a new economic team after the presidential elections.

During today’s trading, investors are awaiting the Turkish Central Bank’s decision on interest rates, which is expected to be raised for the first time in several years after the Turkish president’s insistence on reducing interest rates to single digits, which he actually succeeded in during the first quarter of this year. Current expectations for raising interest rates, especially with the appointment of a new finance minister and governor of the country’s central bank who are supporters of the traditional theory in the economy, to levels between 20 percent to 25 percent, compared to the current rate of 8.5 percent. The expected increases come with the aim of reducing inflation in the country, which has reached 40% levels, according to the latest data.

On the technical level, the price of the dollar against the Turkish lira stabilized without changes during early trading this morning, as the pair has been trading at levels for nearly a week, after a wave of strong rise that lasted for nearly a month, during which the dollar pair recorded new highs on a daily basis.

Currently, the pair is trading around 23.60 levels since the middle of last week’s trading, which is higher than the support levels that are concentrated at 23.50 and 23.00, respectively. The price also settles below the resistance levels that are concentrated at 24.00 and 24.50. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend.

 Until the announcement of the expected changes in monetary policy, caution may be the master of the situation, with the pair’s gains momentum declining, as it is expected to record stability until the next central bank meeting. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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