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EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Faces Resistance


The future performance of the euro will heavily depend on risk appetite and market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. 

  • During Monday’s trading session, the EUR/USD experienced a slight pullback as market participants sought to determine whether the upward momentum can be sustained.
  • Following the recent meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the market witnessed a significant surge.
  • Notably, while the ECB opted to raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve chose to maintain its current stance. However, it is important to acknowledge that the market is expected to remain volatile, especially as it approaches significant resistance levels from previous trading sessions.

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Beneath the surface, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average near the 1.0850 level is showing an upward trend. The strong impulsive candlestick formation observed on Thursday reflects the euro’s short-term strength. However, it is worth considering that considerable noise exists between the current levels and the 1.11 level, suggesting that a pullback is reasonable within this context.

The future performance of the euro will heavily depend on risk appetite and market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate hikes may indicate a belief among market participants that the central bank will adopt a more restrained approach going forward. Consequently, this could potentially lead to a further weakening of the US dollar.

Should the market surpass the high point of Friday’s candlestick, it is likely to continue its gradual ascent toward the 1.11 level. Nonetheless, it is important to acknowledge the presence of heightened volatility in this market. Moreover, given the current summer season, which tends to bring lower Average True Range (ATR) levels, choppy behavior is expected in the coming days. Therefore, traders should remain adaptable as the market undergoes a period of self-adjustment.

In the end, as the euro experiences a slight retracement, traders are closely monitoring the currency’s ability to sustain its upward momentum. The recent meetings of the ECB and the Federal Reserve have played a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. While the ECB opted for an interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve took a pause, leading to speculation about a potentially less aggressive monetary policy stance in the future. However, resistance levels from previous trading sessions pose a challenge to the euro’s continued ascent. Technical indicators, such as the 50-Day EMA, and short-term price action provide insights into the currency’s strength. As the market navigates through a period of increased volatility, traders should remain vigilant and adapt to the ever-evolving dynamics of the euro.

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