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TRY/USD Forecast: The President’s Statements Reveal

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  • Entering a buy order pending order from the  23.00 levels
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 22.80 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 23.50.
  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 24.00 level.
  • The best points for placing a stop loss close the highest level of 24.15.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 23.50

The Turkish lira maintained its stability against the US dollar during trading today, Thursday, for the third day in a row, as the Turkish currency witnessed some stability after the strong declines that lasted for about a month after the victory of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Investors followed the Turkish President’s statements, which he made yesterday, about the economic situation and the new team that took over monetary and financial policy in the country. “Citizens should not have a misconception about adopting a serious change in interest rate policies, I am on the same position,” Erdogan said.

This brought back doubts to the markets, especially after a kind of optimism that supported the price of the lira recently after reports indicated that interest rates would be raised during the meeting of the Central Bank of Turkey during expected meeting next week. At this point, reports stated that interest rates in the country may jump to 25%, compared to the current rate, which stands at 8.5%.

The Turkish president’s statements show limited freedom in front of the economic team consisting of Mehmet Simsek (Minister of Finance) and Hafiza Arkan (Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey) to control the high inflation rate, which the Turkish president promised to reduce to the single digits, after inflation recorded a record rate of 86% during last months of last year.

 On the technical front, the dollar pair stabilized against the Turkish lira without major changes, after a wave of ascending within the general bullish trend in which the pair is trading strongly. The dollar pair against the lira recorded new highs on a daily basis. Currently, the pound has stabilized for the third day in a row, as the pair reached 23.67 levels. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 23.50 and 23.00, respectively.

The price also settles below the resistance levels that are concentrated at 24.00 and 24.50. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend.

Until the announcement of the expected changes in monetary policy, caution may be the master of the situation, with the pair’s gains momentum declining, as it is expected to record stability until the next central bank meeting. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.


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