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USD/JPY Forecast: Continues to Look Higher


The volatility and unpredictability of this currency pair pose challenges for traders. 

The USD/JPY exhibited a modest rally during Friday’s trading session, signaling a resurgence in its strength. However, the market is currently in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range, as it seeks to accumulate enough momentum to break out above the key ¥140 level. This level holds significant psychological importance, being a large, round number. A successful breach of this level would likely propel the market higher, potentially targeting the ¥142.50 level and even potentially reaching ¥145. This outlook is supported by the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy stance and the ongoing challenges faced by the Bank of Japan with its yield curve control policy. Consequently, holding dollars against the yen via swap positions has become attractive, resembling a classic “carry trade.”

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On the downside, the ¥138 level is expected to offer support, given its previous role as resistance. This suggests that it is only a matter of time before buyers return to capitalize on the opportunity presented by relatively cheaper dollars. However, it is important to acknowledge the inherent noise present in this market. The volatility and unpredictability of this currency pair pose challenges for traders. Thus, it is advisable to approach this market with caution and ensure appropriate position sizing.

Furthermore, market participants should closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s comments in the upcoming week. The market will likely pay significant attention to any indications of the Federal Reserve flexing its monetary policy measures. Such developments could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of this currency pair. If the Federal Reserve maintains its assertive stance, the pair will probably experience a sharp upward surge. Additionally, from a technical analysis perspective, the market is currently forming a bullish flag pattern, further supporting a bullish outlook.

Ultimately, the US dollar demonstrated a modest rally, but the market is currently consolidating as it aims to gather sufficient momentum to surpass the crucial ¥140 level. The potential for further upside exists, with targets at ¥142.50 and ¥145. Traders should remain cognizant of the noisy nature of this market and adopt appropriate position sizing. Market dynamics will be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming comments, and technical analysis indicates a potential bullish flag pattern. By staying attuned to these factors, traders can navigate this currency pair effectively and capitalize on potential opportunities presented by the US dollar’s performance against the yen.

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