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Very difficult to forecast directional moves in this currency pair.
My previous EUR/USD signal on 25th May produced a profitable long trade from the bullish bounce at the support level which I had identified at $1.0707.
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm London time today.
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0736 or $1.0796.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of the zone between $1.0704 and $1.0697, or $1.0626.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I said that the price would probably reach the support level at $1.0707 today, but would probably not get established below $1.0690, so scalpers may have an opportunity in that price area on the long side.
This was a great call, as I was not only correct about this trade but also that it was best taken as a scalp, as the overall profit was not very large.
The technical picture has changed over the last week or so, from clearly bearish with a strong Dollar and a weak Euro – both backed by fundamentals and sentiment – to a choppier picture. The price chart below shows the price is basically chopping around between $1.0625 and $1.0800. However, there are some support and resistance levels within this area.
As the price looks likely to remain within this consolidation range, the best strategy will probably be to trade reversals from any price extremes which are reached, especially the levels at $1.0626 and $1.0796, although these are unlikely to be hit today.
There could be smaller opportunities to scalp reversals at other, closer, support and resistance levels, but such trades should be entered with smaller positions and monitored carefully on a short time frame.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR.
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