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AUD/USD Forecast: With Overhead Resistance

At the end of the day, the Australian dollar faced initial declines as global growth concerns persisted.

  • The AUD/USD faced initial downward pressure in Monday’s trading session, reflecting global concerns surrounding global economic growth.
  • As a currency highly correlated with commodities and the Chinese economy, the Australian dollar is significantly influenced by these factors.
  • The markets are currently grappling with multiple moving targets, including the implications of OPEC’s decision to cut production once again.


Given the prevailing uncertainties, many traders are apprehensive about the possibility of an economic downturn. Consequently, it is reasonable to expect the US dollar to regain strength. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) above could provide a level of resistance, and a breakthrough would bring about significant changes. Conversely, if signs of exhaustion become apparent, I am inclined to take a short position, as it could indicate a shift towards the safety of the US dollar. This is particularly true now that the debt ceiling issue appears to be resolved, prompting people to invest in US Treasuries.

It is important to note that the market is expected to remain highly volatile, necessitating caution amidst the erratic price action observed on a day-to-day basis. Remarkably, despite the prevailing negativity in the real world, traders worldwide seem willing to look beyond it. However, a day of reckoning will eventually arrive, potentially leading to a substantial downward move. Until that point, the market will likely continue to exhibit noisy behavior within this general range. Consequently, there is a likelihood of encountering false moves, but eventually, a significant follow-through will be necessary.

At the end of the day, the Australian dollar faced initial declines as global growth concerns persisted. Its strong correlation with commodities and the Chinese economy makes it susceptible to market fluctuations. Traders must remain attentive to the ongoing economic landscape. While the US dollar may strengthen, resistance lies at the 50-Day EMA. Exhaustion signs may prompt short positions, considering the market’s inclination towards the US dollar’s safety. Nevertheless, the market is expected to exhibit noise and erratic behavior, reflecting the prevailing uncertainties. It is crucial to exercise caution amidst the day-to-day fluctuations. Ultimately, a reckoning day may lead to a substantial downward move. Until then, traders should prepare for potential head fakes but remain attentive for significant follow-through in due course. I remain bearish overall.


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