There has been a huge amount of money thrown at zero-day expiration options, and we are most certainly in the middle of some type of new bubble.
- The NASDAQ 100 rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday after the better-than-anticipated jobs number coming out of the United States shipped the market.
- That being said, it looks as if people are starting to use the “big 7” companies in the NASDAQ 100 as a bit of a safety play, throwing money at companies like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, etc.
- There has been a huge amount of money thrown at zero-day expiration options, and we are most certainly in the middle of some type of new bubble.
Because of this, I do think that it’s very difficult to short this market, but you also must realize that you don’t want to be left holding the bag. With this, I think short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities but if you do struggle in your position, you need to get out rather quickly. A move down to the 14,250 level would be very interesting, as it is an area where we see a little bit of support previously. If we were to break down below there, then you could be looking at 14,000 next, followed by the 13,750 level, which was an area of interest previously.
On the upside, it does look like we are trying to get to the 15,000 level, but it may take some time to get there. After all, we are a little overdone at this point and I think it is possible that we are going to struggle to go higher in the short-term but right now it’s obvious that until they choose to “shoot the generals”, it’s almost impossible for this market to fall. Quite frankly, the market is too heavily weighted to just a handful of companies to make that happen.
The only thing you can do at this point is to play the market from the momentum side, but also recognize that if we were to break down below the 13,750 level, it’s very likely that we could see a huge move lower. Because of this, caution is the better part of valor.
Potential signal: I believe that the NASDAQ 100 will continue to see buyers jump into it, at least until the bubble pops. Because of this, for a short-term trade I like the idea of buying the NASDAQ 100 on tips, especially if I can get involved somewhere near the 14,300 level. I would have a stoploss at 14,100 with an ideal target of something just below 15,000.
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