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EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast 4th June


The EUR/USD made a new monthly low in the middle of last week, but then turned upwards as the currency pair reacted to dovish comments from U.S Fed officials.



The EUR/USD remains within the lowest realms of its one-month price range. Having touched a low of nearly 1.06375 last Wednesday, the EUR/USD challenged values seen in the third week of March. Yes, the EUR/USD did climb higher later on Wednesday as it correlated to the broad Forex markets, but it also went into the weekend within sight of its mid-term depths.

On Friday the EUR/USD was trading near a high around the 1.07800 level but was pushed backward like the broad Forex market.  Economic data from Germany remains troubling as recessionary pressures seemingly mount within the nation. However, the reason the EUR/USD produced choppy conditions last week was caused by two Federal Reserve FOMC members saying they believed the U.S. central bank should not raise the Federal Funds Rate in June. The remarks from the two Fed officials came on Wednesday, but on Friday U.S jobs numbers came in better than expected and this made the USD stronger again as economic data poured cold water on speculative EUR/USD bulls.

Traders who believe the EUR/USD remains oversold likely have many financial institutions that agree with them.  However, day traders who are attempting to pursue upwards perceptions of the EUR/USD are likely to find it difficult to catch onto a trend and hold onto it without suffering from the reversals which have dominated the currency pair’s trading recently. The move lower in the EUR/USD has been strong since the 3rd of May, one month ago, when the Forex pair was trading near 1.10900.

  • While Services PMI reports will come from Europe tomorrow, major economic data in the coming days will be rather limited.
  • This will likely leave the EUR/USD to be shaken by technical perceptions and behavioral sentiment.
  • The stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Employment Change numbers from the U.S. this past Friday sets the table for more nervous broad market conditions because the outlook regarding the Federal Reserve remains unclear.
  • The EUR/USD went into the weekend at its lows for the day, and essentially where the week of trading for the currency pair began last Monday.

The speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.05900 to 1.08100

The EUR/USD finished last week essentially where it began which is not a bullish indication. The choppy conditions within the currency pair reflect the poor economic data from Europe and the aggressive stance the U.S. Federal Reserve still is exhibiting. Even though two U.S FOMC members spoke about the need to halt interest rates last week, not all U.S Fed members agree with this outlook.

Jobs data from the U.S. this past Friday was a reminder economic data from the U.S. remains rather strong regarding hiring and inflation. The EUR/USD trading below the 1.07100 level to end the week could be interpreted as a bearish signal technically when a one-month chart is looked upon.

Bullish speculators who believe the EUR/USD is oversold may be proven correct, but it may not be this week that the currency pair resumes a sustained move upwards. One of the key elements of trading is to know there can be a big difference between short and long-term outlooks in Forex. The EUR/USD certainly enjoyed buying momentum into early May, but behavioral sentiment has grown nervous regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve and continues to create headwinds.

Traders looking for upside momentum should probably look for quick-hitting trades in the coming days and expect more volatility to take place. If the EUR/USD balls below the 1.07000 level and challenges the 1.06700 to 1.06400 levels this would be a rather bearish sign and suggests some financial institutions could be positioning for another interest rate hike from the U.S Federal Reserve on the 14th of June.



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