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Economic Growth Exceeds Analysts’ Expectat


On the technical front, the USD/TRY maintained its gains, as the pair recorded a new all-time high during yesterday’s trading, to reach 20.88 levels, as the pair approaches 21.00 levels for each dollar. 

The risk is 0.50%.

  • Entering a buy order pending order from the 20.50 level.
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 20.29 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 21.10.
  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 21.00 level.
  • The best points for placing a stop loss close the highest level of 20.65.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the 21.15 support level.

The TRY/USD has stabilized near its lowest level ever, with the accelerating decline of the Turkish currency since the start of the electoral process in the middle of last month. Investors followed reports about the growth of the Turkish economy during the first half of this year, which rebounded thanks to the increase in government spending ahead of the elections, in addition to the stimulus policy pursued by the Turkish president, which provided loans with small interest in conjunction with a successive increase in the minimum wage. The figures revealed that the economy recorded a growth rate of 4%, which exceeded analysts’ expectations, and was concentrated at a growth rate of 3.5%.

As for the expectations for the second half, the expectations indicate a further decline, especially since the reasons that drove growth during the first half are unlikely to continue in the same way during the second half of the year, with the high current account deficit and the decline in the volume of cash reserves in the country, as fiscal policies led And cash to put pressure on the lira and the rise in the price level. According to the latest forecasts, growth in the second half of the year may decline to 1.6%, to record total growth during 2023 of about 2.7%.

On the technical front, the USD/TRY maintained its gains, as the pair recorded a new all-time high during yesterday’s trading, to reach 20.88 levels, as the pair approaches 21.00 levels for each dollar. The general trend of the US dollar against the lira continued, which accelerated before the start of the elections and increased after the second round. The lira is under great pressure in light of the adopted monetary policy, as it hardly records any significant correction. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 20.70 and 20.60, respectively. The price also settles below the resistance levels that are concentrated at 21.00 and 21.50. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend. Because of the expected changes in monetary policy after the elections, any decline in the dollar against the lira represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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