Pulls Back Against the Yen in Thin Trading

At the end of the day, the US dollar attempted to rally during Monday’s trading session but encountered hesitation, signaling the influence of gravity and potential issues in the market. 

The USD/JPY initially attempted to rally during Monday’s trading session but encountered hesitation and gave back its gains. This market behavior suggests that gravity is coming into play, indicating potential issues. However, it is likely only a matter of time before the overall uptrend resumes. This market is expected to provide numerous opportunities, particularly if the Bank of Japan continues it’s quantitative easing monetary policy. The bank’s 50 basis point cap on the 10-year yield necessitates the purchase of Japanese yen to drive down rates. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain or tighten its monetary policy.

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Considering these factors, it is probable that the market will eventually reach the ¥148 level, representing the measured move of the triangle pattern. A break below the ¥138 level could lead to a decline toward the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the ¥136 level, followed by the 200-Day EMA around ¥135. However, given the current market conditions, it is unlikely that the market will revisit those lower levels. The current price action is likely a result of profit-taking and a lack of market participants willing to enter positions.

• The market is expected to move higher, presenting a “buy on the dips” opportunity.
• While an eventual upward trajectory is anticipated, a pullback may be required to attract more buyers, considering the recent parabolic nature of the market over the past few weeks.
• Looking at this chart, I suspect will be able to get long again as the interest rate differential continues to be a big factor.

At the end of the day, the US dollar attempted to rally during Monday’s trading session but encountered hesitation, signaling the influence of gravity and potential issues in the market. However, the overall uptrend is expected to resume in due time. The Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing policy, combined with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening or maintenance, supports the likelihood of higher prices. The market is anticipated to reach the ¥148 level, but a temporary pullback may be necessary to entice more buyers. Despite recent profit-taking and a lack of market participants, this market presents a “buy on the dips” opportunity. While a pullback may be necessary, the overall trajectory points towards higher levels for the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

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