Increasing Bets Against the Turkish Lira

On the technical front, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained its gains, as the pair recorded its new highest levels ever during today’s early trading, after the pair broke the correct number of 20.00 liras last Friday, bringing the pair to 20.31 levels. 

The risk is 0.50%.

• Entering a buy order pending order from the 20.00 level.
• Place a stop loss point to close below the 19.89 level.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 20.50.

• Entering a sell order pending order from the 20.50 level.
• The best points for placing a stop loss close to the highest level of 20.65.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 20.15.

The Turkish lira is facing pressure, one day after the announcement of the victory of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a second term. As the bets against the Turkish lira expanded in light of the monetary policy that the Turkish president pledged to maintain, which is based on reducing the interest rate, despite the high inflation in the country. The Central Bank of Turkey had previously fixed the interest rate during last Thursday’s meeting at 8.5%, at the same time, the volume of cash reserves owned by the central bank, according to data issued at the end of last week, decreased by about 3%.

Erdogan’s victory represents a source of distrust for foreign investors, as international bonds recorded a large sell-off, with dollar bonds falling to their lowest levels in six months after Erdogan’s lead during the first round of elections, and this comes at a time when the cost of insurance against credit default was recorded higher. level since November last year. At the same time, reports are expanding that indicate that the lira recorded more losses during the second half of this year, as some reports indicate that the dollar has reached levels of 29 pounds. The lira had lost about 8% of its value during 2023. These negative data come at a time when some reports suggest the possibility of the Turkish president reversing his unconventional monetary policy with a team of experts taking over the economic file.

On the technical front, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained its gains, as the pair recorded its new highest levels ever during today’s early trading, after the pair broke the correct number of 20.00 liras last Friday, bringing the pair to 20.31 levels. The general trend of the US dollar against the lira continued, which accelerated before the start of the elections and increased after the second round. At the moment, the price has broken the ascending channel on the four-hour timeframe. At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 20.00 and 19.90, respectively.

The price also settles below the resistance levels that are concentrated at 20.40 and 20.50. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend. Because of the expected changes in monetary policy after the elections, any decline in the dollar against the lira represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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