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Higher Realms from the Past Month are Being Challen

Tomorrow Canada will release its Gross Domestic Product numbers and recessionary pressure is expected to produce a negative result. 

The USD/CAD remains within the upper tier of its short and mid-term price charts, and nervous buying is keeping the pair rather stubborn.

The USD/CAD as of this writing is near the 1.36040 level as it hovers near intriguing short-term ratios.  The USD/CAD is not only still within the upper realms of its one-week price range, but when a one-month technical chart is glanced upon the currency pair is still showing rather stubborn highs. Traders who have been trying to sell the USD/CAD on the notion that lower prices would develop may feel rather battered by their speculative wagers recently.

Tomorrow Canada will release its Gross Domestic Product numbers and recessionary pressure is expected to produce a negative result.  Last week’s U.S GDP number actually came in slightly stronger than expected and so did Personal Spending. The better-than-anticipated growth from the U.S. – while not strong – still shows resilience, and the better-than-expected consumer number from the States is actually troubling for the U.S. Federal Reserve. Inflation concerns remain a problem in Canada and the U.S.

If the U.S. corporate mid and small-sized banking sector were not so weak, the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely have made it clear they intend on raising interest rates again on the 14th of June.  However, for the time being, the Fed only has sounded warning rhetoric about inflation remaining stubborn and has not given a clear viewpoint regarding the Federal Funds Rate.

  • The U.S. will see Consumer Sentiment numbers today, and on Friday Non-Farm Employment Change and earnings data will be published.
  • The ability of the USD/CAD to sustain prices above 1.36000 since last Wednesday is a signal that buying remains stubborn and financial institutions are nervous about the near term.
  • U.S. data this week, particularly from the Average Hourly Earnings on Friday could deliver more insight regarding the Fed’s approach for its June interest rate decision, and traders need to remain cautious.

Choppy conditions should be expected for the remainder of this week in the USD/CAD. The noise from the debt ceiling crisis is expected to go away tomorrow if Congress passes the debt agreement in the U.S., which will then turn the focus onto economic data again. The 1.36000 ratios should be watched because it remains an important psychological ratio.

For traders who think the USD/CAD cannot go higher, they should look at prices from March when the 1.37000 to 1.38000 range was tested consistently. Until the U.S. Federal Reserve signals its ability to become less aggressive, traders with selling ambitions should be conservative and look for quick-hitting targets below, because reversals higher may remain durable.

Current Resistance: 1.36110

Current Support: 1.35975

High Target: 1.36475

Low Target: 1.35725


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