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Continues to Look for Direction

Expectations for the crude oil markets include a high probability of noisy price action and increased volatility. 

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market exhibited a slightly negative tone during Monday’s trading session, but it’s important to note that it was Memorial Day, resulting in limited activity dominated by electronic trading. The struggle with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) persists, and a breakthrough above that level could potentially propel the WTI grade towards the $75 mark, and even higher to around $79 where the 200-Day EMA is converging.

In the event of a decline from the current levels, it’s worth considering that the $70 level is likely to provide substantial support, attracting significant attention from market participants. A breakdown below this level opens the possibility of a further downward move toward the $67.50 level, or potentially as low as $65. However, this is not my base-case scenario at the moment.

WTI Crude Oil

  • The Brent market initially attempted to rally during Monday’s trading session but subsequently turned negative as the 50-Day EMA above continued to pose resistance.
  • If the price manages to break above that level, it will necessitate testing the $80 level, which holds considerable psychological significance as a major round figure. Conversely, a decline below the $75 level would likely lead to a test of the $72.50 level.
  • Further downwards, the $70 level is expected to attract significant attention and support, as it has demonstrated multiple times in the past.

Expectations for the crude oil markets include a high probability of noisy price action and increased volatility. Given the current circumstances, choppiness is likely to prevail. However, over time, a more definitive direction is anticipated. It is important to brace for noise and volatility as the dominant features of the market. A break above the 50-Day EMA could potentially introduce some momentum to the market. In the long term, the summer season tends to present a typical range-bound environment for crude oil markets.

In conclusion, the WTI Crude Oil market faced some negativity during Monday’s session, while the Brent market initially attempted a rally but turned negative as well. Both markets are contending with resistance from the 50-Day EMA. A breakthrough above these levels could lead to higher price targets, while a decline may find support at key levels. Expectations revolve around noise, choppiness, and heightened volatility. Longer-term, a summer range-bound scenario is anticipated in both crude oil markets.

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