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Natural Gas Forecast: Has a Quiet Session

Given the current state of the market, with natural gas caught in a consolidation area, it is unlikely to witness significant price movements. 

  • The natural gas market lacks direction as it hovers around the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
  • The market appears quiet and listless, within a significant consolidation area. The $2.00 below and the $3.00 above serve as crucial support and resistance levels, respectively.
  • Consequently, traders find themselves in a situation where a decision will eventually need to be made. However, during the summertime, natural gas demand tends to be lackluster, leading to back-and-forth grinding movements. Quite frankly, this is a market that is all about short-term trading more than anything else.


Typically, natural gas experiences limited upward momentum unless a heat wave or colder temperatures emerge. We are far from such weather conditions, but as we approach the end of the summer, attention will turn to concerns about natural gas supplies for the winter in Europe. Over the past year, the European Union has faced challenges with natural gas supplies due to Russia’s discontinuation of gas exports to the region. In such a scenario, the United States will likely increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, directly impacting the market based on the Henry Hub distribution center.

Given the current state of the market, with natural gas caught in a consolidation area, it is unlikely to witness significant price movements. Breaking out of the $1.00 range would catalyze a more substantial move. However, expect a lot of back-and-forth movement, providing potential opportunities for range-bound trading strategies over the coming months. Nonetheless, as the summer draws close, the natural gas market is expected to transition into a bullish phase. Maintaining reasonable position sizes and closely monitoring the $2.00 level as support and the $3.00 level as resistance is crucial.

The natural gas market remains trapped within a consolidation area, lacking clear direction. With significant support at $2.00 and resistance at $3.00, the market is expected to continue grinding back and forth during the summertime, characterized by subdued demand. Natural gas typically requires catalysts such as heat waves or colder temperatures to exhibit significant upward momentum. As the summer concludes, attention will turn to European natural gas supplies for the winter, potentially leading to increased LNG exports from the United States. Traders should be prepared for range-bound movements in the near term while monitoring key support and resistance levels for potential breakouts.

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