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Speculatively Strong Price Range Remains on Exhibit


The USD/BRL remains within a rather strong price range, which may be allowing speculators to wager on the currency pair via technical perceptions.

The USD/BRL closed trading near the 4.9600 prices yesterday as the currency pair has produced a rather confident value realm for speculators to wager. The USD/BRL has largely traded within the 4.9400 to 5.0000 price levels the past week with a few outliers. Certainly, the range could falter and what appears to be consolidation can evaporate. Technically the USD/BRL remains intriguing for true traders, but speculators need to consider some fundamentals too and this could cause complicated results.

The ability of the USD/BRL to remain within a rather steady price realm over the past couple of weeks is noteworthy.  Additionally, if a trader looks at the results of the USD/BRL over the past month technical charts actually demonstrate a rather progressive downward path. The ability of the USD/BRL to produce a bearish trend over the past four and half weeks doesn’t correlate with many other major currency pairs. The USD has been rather strong against most currencies, but the Brazilian Real has actually been durable. Will this continue to be the story?

The price range of the USD/BRL allows speculators the opportunity to wager on support and resistance while testing their behavioral sentiment. Making matters complicated is the acknowledgment that the USD/BRL has crept a bit higher since the 15th of May when the Forex pair was trading near the 4.8880 ratios briefly, this as some fundamental concerns lurk.

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve has made it clear additional interest rate hikes may have to happen, but yesterday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes did not give a clear indication of the timeline and a June increase remains questionable.
  • The U.S. will release GDP numbers today and inflation statistics tomorrow, the results will have an effect on the USD/BRL. 
  • Traders should keep in mind this coming Monday is a holiday in the U.S., which means trading volumes could become volatile in the near term as financial institutions brace for a long weekend.

Speculators should be careful of the opening with the USD/BRL today, because of its ability to produce a gap. Traders who want to wager on the USD/BRL should monitor the 4.9400 to 5.0000 price range carefully, a move below the 4.9400 ratio may be an interesting place to look for some movement upwards, while a climb higher may be attractive to try and sell. Yet there are concerns regarding this perception.

Behavioral sentiment in the U.S. remains quite nervous. Traders should be aware that consolidation could come to an end. If this occurs, there is a reason to suspect the stronger momentum in the near term could be higher which means the 5.0000 could be penetrated upwards, this if the broad markets have a reason to be more nervous about the U.S Fed outlook, the U.S debt ceiling debate and economic data on the calendar ready to be published.

Current Resistance:  4.9690

Current Support:  4.9480

High Target: 5.0240

Low Target:  4.9275

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