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Buying the NASDAQ 100 has been a winner for some time but we are a little overdone.
The NASDAQ 100 Index drifted a little bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we reached near the 13,500 level. This is an area that has a little bit of psychology attached to it, and it’s probably worth noting that the NASDAQ 100 may have gotten a little bit ahead of itself over the last couple of weeks. Furthermore, we also have to keep an eye on the fact that the NASDAQ 100 is driven by just 7 stocks essentially, so with that being the case, you should look at this more or less as an ETF instead of an index.
Mehta, Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, etc., all drive where this market goes over the longer term, so simply paying attention to the big companies in the index is enough. That being said, it’s also a very significant risk barometer, so you must pay close attention to what the overall markets are doing. If there is a lot of concern, the NASDAQ 100 will probably underperform.
All things being equal, this is probably a “reversion to the mean” type of situation, because we got far too ahead of ourselves. The 13,200 level underneath is an area that I think a lot of attention will be paid attention to, as it was previous resistance. The 50-Day exponential moving average is starting to reach that area, therefore I think you get a situation where technical traders will look to get involved so that they can pick up a bit of “value.”
Break it down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 12,800 level, and then perhaps even as low as the 200-Day EMA. All things being equal, I do think that there are plenty of buyers for the NASDAQ 100, but I would also point out that there are a lot of things out there that could cause major issues, and that will be shown as people jumping out of this market, regardless of what the stocks are doing. In the meantime, it certainly looks as if we have plenty of interest, so therefore you have to assume that sooner or later value hunters come back and that’s essentially how I would play this market.
- Buying the NASDAQ 100 has been a winner for some time but we are a little overdone.
- I would love to get along on a pullback toward the 13,400 level, maybe even add to the position a little bit at the 13,200 level with a hard stop at the 50-Day EMA.
- A return to the highs would be the target.
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