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Crude Oil Forecast: Finding its Summer Range


Given the prevailing market conditions, expect continued periods of noise and choppy behavior. 

  • The trading sessions for WTI Crude Oil and Brent markets have shown some strength, yet they remain confined within consolidation areas that have persisted for some time.
  • As the markets grapple with demand uncertainties, there is a quest to determine the potential summer range.
  • Historically, this time of year tends to see range-bound trading, while the recent significant sell-off adds further weight to the notion of a temporary respite.
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For WTI Crude Oil, the $65 level stands as a crucial support zone, while the $80 level above serves as a formidable resistance. These price points could define the summer range. However, it is worth noting that the shorter-term charts currently display a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting the possibility of a breakout leading to a short-term price movement.

On the other hand, the Brent market exhibits an ascending triangle pattern. Here, the 50-Day EMA acts as a resistance barrier above. A breakthrough beyond this level could propel prices toward the $80 mark and reach as high as $85, representing the upper boundary of the overall range. Similarly, the $70 level is seen as a significant support level.

Given the prevailing market conditions, expect continued periods of noise and choppy behavior. As a result, short-term trading strategies are likely to dominate market participants’ approaches. The $75 level has also emerged as a magnet for prices, further contributing to the overall confusion. Consequently, traders must remain cautious and prepared for the inherent headline risks that can further fuel market volatility.

Ultimately, the WTI Crude Oil and Brent markets are navigating a volatile landscape as they attempt to establish summer ranges. While key support and resistance levels provide important price boundaries, the current chart patterns suggest the potential for short-term breakouts and movements. Traders should approach these markets with a short-term perspective and remain mindful of the broader headline risks that can impact price dynamics.

As the summer season unfolds, market participants must closely monitor demand factors and remain agile in their trading strategies. The prevailing volatility calls for a keen focus on risk management and adapting to changing market conditions. With uncertainty lingering, clarity may be hard to come by. Still, astute traders who remain vigilant and flexible can find opportunities within the noise and capitalize on short-term price movements. Longer-term markets are still going to be difficult.

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