The market will be very noisy under the best of circumstances.
- The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but gave back gains as we may have gotten slightly extended.
- That said, we recently have broken above the crucial 13,750 level, and now it looks like we are ready to continue to go much higher.
- That does open up the possibility of a move toward the 14,000 level, and then we have a situation where traders will continue to find value in dips. If we can break above the top the candlestick for the Friday session, then it should bring in even more “FOMO trading.”
The 13,500 level underneath would be supported; if we break down below there, we could open up a move down to the 13,200 level. I do not expect to see that easily, but it’s obvious that this market has taken off to the outside and it is ready to continue going much higher. The market will be very noisy under the best of circumstances. Therefore, we also have to keep in the back of our heads that a handful of companies drive the NASDAQ, so it has nothing to do with the overall global health of the economy. It’s companies like Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, etc.
At this juncture, I think that a short-term pullback does make a certain amount of sense, but I also think that there will be enough value hundreds out there to turn things around and start to push this market to the upside. If we break above the 14,000 level, then that opens the possibility of a move all the way to 15,000 which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the 50-Day EMA underneath, then it opens the possibility of a move to the 12,800 level, and then anything underneath there would be very negative. In that environment, we would almost certainly see a major trend change, but right now it just does not look like a market that’s willing to break down, and therefore I think you have to look at it through the prism of what it is: a grinding bullish market. That being said, you have to watch those handfuls of stocks to get a good gauge as to where we are going, but it does look like we just broke out, and maybe pulled back in order to find support.
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