The AUD/USD has gone back and forth during the course of the training, as we have tested the crucial 0.66 level underneath to find plenty of support yet again. Recently, the pair has been trading between the 0.66 level in the 0.68 level, and we are going to continue to see the market hang in this area. I would look at this through the prism of a short-term range-bound trading environment but do recognize that if we can get a close outside of this 200-point range, it’s likely that we either go to the 0.70 level to the upside or the 0.64 level on the downside.
The USD/JPY has broken higher against the Japanese yen to break a major barrier at the ¥138 level. However, the market still faces a lot of noise just above and I think it is probably only a matter of time before it has to make a much bigger decision. With that being said, it’s a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of whether or not we have more momentum, and a break above the top of the weekly candlestick could send the dollar toward the ¥140 level. However, a pullback does offer a buying opportunity all the way down to the ¥135 level on signs of support.
The GBP/USD has been back and forth most of the week against the US dollar, as traders are attempting to figure out what they are going to do next. After all, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to global demand, so, therefore, you will have to be very cautious. The 1.2650 level area above has caused significant resistance and if we could break above there, that would obviously be very bullish for the pound. On the other hand, if we break down below the 1.2350 level, we could see a little bit of a drop.
The EUR/USD fell during most of the week but did recover a bit toward the end of it. It looks as if we are going to sit around the 1.08 level and try to find our next move, possibly sending this market toward the 1.10 level above. It’s also worth noting that the 200-Week EMA is closer to the 1.11 level and is dropping, so that could cause a problem. On the downside, if we break down below the 1.07 level, then it could open up a move down to the 1.05 level over the longer term.
Gold markets have fallen rather hard during the week but have also turned around to recover quite nicely on Friday. By doing so, this suggests that the market still has plenty of buyers on dips, and I would look at this as a value proposition, looking for “cheap gold” as it occurs. Ultimately, I don’t have any interest in selling gold yet, and I think that it would not be overly surprising to see the gold market return and try to get to the $2000 level.
The S&P 500 rallied during the better part of the week, as we continue to threaten a significant breakout. We did pierce the 4200 level, but it looks like there is a little bit of pushback at this point. With that in mind, I think it still remains more or less a “buy on the dips” market, but one that you need to be cautious with. If we were to break down below the 4100 level, that could change a few things but right now all I see is a lot of noise just waiting to happen and perhaps a lot of trouble.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied to show signs of life during the course of the week, but we still see a lot of noise above and ultimately it is a situation where we are trying to figure out where to go from here, due to the fact that oil is so highly sensitive to the global economy, which of course is all over the place at the moment. With this being the case, I think we’ve got a situation where you probably get a lot of short-term back-and-forth volatility over the next week.
The NASDAQ 100 has hit my target of 13,750 this past week, and now it looks as if we are going to continue to try to break out to the upside. Short-term pullbacks at this point make a certain amount of sense, with the 13,200 level possibly offering support. That being said, if we can take out the top of the candlestick for the week, then it opens up a move toward 14,000. It’s worth noting that the NASDAQ 100 has been very bullish as of late, and of course this past weekly candlestick was very strong.