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Continues to Find Downward Pressure


At the end of the day, the Euro declined slightly against the US dollar, driven by prevailing negative pressure. 

  • The EUR/USD experienced a slight decline against the US dollar during Monday’s trading session, as negative pressure persists.
  • Should this momentum continue, it is likely that the market will target the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and approach the 1.07 level.
  • This scenario reflects the market’s preference for the US dollar as a haven and concerns regarding the European economy.

Ironically, the ongoing debt ceiling may support the US dollar as investors seek a haven. However, it should not come as a surprise if the US dollar loses some strength after a debt ceiling decision is reached, as investors perceive it as a resolution to a potential crisis. In contrast, the Euro appears to have reached a temporary peak, suggesting a logical pullback. The extent of this pullback’s impact is yet to be determined, but recent developments indicate a downward momentum shift in the Euro.

On the upside, the 1.09 level will act as short-term resistance due to the presence of the 50-Day EMA within that range. Subsequently, the 1.10 level becomes another hurdle. To confirm the continuation of the overall upward trend and the dominance of buyers, a daily close above the 1.11 level is required. It is important to acknowledge that although the Euro has recently exhibited significant strength, it has encountered considerable resistance around the well-established 50% Fibonacci level. Consequently, the market is expected to remain volatile, necessitating a focus on short-term charts for trading analysis.

At the end of the day, the Euro declined slightly against the US dollar, driven by prevailing negative pressure. The market’s focus on the US dollar as a haven and concerns regarding the European economy contribute to this downward momentum. The debt ceiling situation ironically offers some support to the US dollar. However, a potential weakening of the US dollar may occur after a decision is reached. Meanwhile, the Euro’s recent strength has encountered resistance near the 50% Fibonacci level, signaling a shift in momentum to the downside. Short-term resistance levels exist at 1.09 and 1.10, while a breakthrough at 1.11 would reaffirm the upward trend. As the market continues to be very noisy, it is worth noticing whether short-term charts offer opportunities, and it would be cautious about getting overexposed in any one position.

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