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Risk Adverse Bullish Trend Dominates Upwards Ride


The USD/ZAR has come off of the highs it generated before going into the weekend, but the currency pair remains within the upper tier of its apex price range.


The USD/ZAR is near the 19.10600 level as of this writing, last week around this time the currency pair was near the 18.32000 ratio.  The upwards climb in the USD/ZAR has demonstrated strong price velocity and from a speculative bullish viewpoint has provided a potentially solid profit for traders who were fortunate to have active buying positions.

The ability of the USD/ZAR has not correlated to the broad Forex market and trading within the Forex pair has taken on a nervous tone.  It is clear that domestic South African concerns regarding reliable electrical supply and what is perceived as inefficient political leadership have caused financial institutions to become increasingly nervous. The USD/ZAR hit an all-time record high on Friday and the mark of 18.51100 was not treated like a surprise by the citizens of South Africa who have lost a lot of faith in the government. Risk-adverse buying of the USD/ZAR is becoming a ‘norm’.

If the 19.00000 level from the USD/ZAR can be sustained above in the near term this may cause financial houses and speculators to suspect this ratio will start to become durable. Technical traders who have been trying to sell the USD/ZAR based on the notion that reversals need to happen may be proven right occasionally, but until there is a change within the manner the South African government deals with the electrical outages plaguing the nation, behavioral sentiment and economic prospects may remain poor.

Rolling blackouts are expected to grow worse in South Africa and this will not calm the nerves of corporations trying to do business in South Africa. The slight selloff in the USD/ZAR this morning is welcome economically, but the question is how long can a downward trend be sustained. If the 19.00000 level starts to act as support and reactionary buying of the USD/ZAR remains constant within this higher price range, the currency pair could continue to incrementally tick upwards.

  • Short-term traders are strongly advised to use solid risk management.
  • The price fluctuations of the USD/ZAR have been violent and costly, particularly if too much leverage and no stop losses have been used as protection for unlucky speculators.

The lack of a firm correlation to the broad Forex market is troubling for the USD/ZAR and it would be nice to see the currency pair begin to mirror other major currency pairs again.  However, the near term may continue to see rather volatile price results and sudden bursts of momentum because financial institutions remain nervous regarding South Africa.                                                                                                      

Current Resistance: 19.15400

Current Support: 19.06775

High Target: 18.30200

Low Target: 18.99900


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