This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
For the month of May, I forecasted that the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs would rise in value.
The performance of my forecast so far this month is as follows:
Last week, I forecasted that the EUR/AUD currency cross would rise in value. This was an accurate call, with the price ending the week higher by 0.03%.
Directional volatility in the Forex market will probably decline over the coming week, as there are fewer high-impact data releases scheduled for the coming week compared to last week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the US Dollar, and relative weakness in the Canadian Dollar.
You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be monitored on the more popular currency pairs this week.
Let us see how trading one of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:
I had expected the level at ¥149.20 might act as resistance in the EUR/JPY currency cross last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level right at the start of last Monday’s London session (which can be a great time to enter trades in major currency pairs like this one) with a piercing candlestick, marked by the down arrow in the price chart below signaling the timing of this bearish rejection. This trade has been nicely profitable so far, giving a maximum reward-to-risk ratio of more than 7 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick.
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