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Relief Rally Likely But Risks Remain

The next key catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming American inflation data and the outcome of a meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy. 

  • Set a sell-stop at 26,900 and a take-profit at 25,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.
  • Set a buy-stop at 28,200 and a take-profit at 30,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 26,000.

Bitcoin retreated to the lowest level since April 25 as concerns about the crypto market continued. The BTC/USD pair moved to a low of 27,200, which was about 11.5% below the highest point this year, meaning it has moved to the correction zone.

The biggest news in the cryptocurrency market this week is the ongoing congestion in the industry that led to higher Bitcoin and Ethereum fees. In a statement, Binance announced that it was pausing Bitcoin withdrawals to address the situation. Withdrawals have now resumed. Also, Binance rejected that there were large Bitcoin outflows from its ecosystem.

Another big news was the decision by the government of Liechtenstein to start accepting Bitcoin for payment of state services. This means that the government will receive payments in Bitcoin and then swap them right away to Swiss francs to avoid exchange-rate risks. The challenge is that the slippage could lead to lower revenue, especially in periods of high volatility.

Further, the finance minister said that the government will be open to investing some of the government’s funds into cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell as regional bank stocks stabilized. The SPDR Regional Banks ETF (KRE) dropped by about 2%, which was a smaller decline than what we experienced last week when most regional banks collapsed.

Bitcoin is seen as a safe haven when banks collapse. This also explains why gold has moved from the all-time high level that it reached last week.

The next key catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming American inflation data and the outcome of a meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy. The meeting is intended to ensure that the American government hikes its debt ceiling to avoid a default.

The BTC/USD pair has been in a bearish trend in the past few days and is now approaching the key support at 26,950, the lowest point on April 24th. The pair has moved below the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the oversold level.

Therefore, the pair will likely have a relief rally as the congestion fears ease. If this happens, the pair will likely retest the key resistance point at 29,000. However, a drop below the support at 26,950 will open the possibility of it falling to the next psychological level at 25,000.

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