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Move Higher Continues to Look like Speculative Play


Traders of the USD/TRY had additional evidence delivered in the evening that the currency pair remains a speculative bullish wager, while maintaining its higher values.

The USD/TRY is trading near the 19.48100 mark as of this writing with fast results being demonstrated. A high of nearly 19.49625 was hit last night as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepared to publish the FOMC Statement. The interest rate hike by the Fed was widely anticipated and the USD/TRY did trade lower in the aftermath of the Fed’s pronouncements. However and very interesting, the USD/TRY did not trade violently lower and still maintains it upper price range.

Speculatively the USD/TRY continues to look like the long-term bullish trend is going to continue.  Traders cannot bet blindly on upwards momentum, and certainly, they should be slightly cautious when big news events like the U.S. Federal Reserve pronouncements are being made.  But when support levels are tested, the currency pair remains an interesting buying wager.

The long-term upwards climb of the USD/TRY continues to be demonstrated as Turkish monetary policy remains highly controversial within financial institutions and is the main reason for the weakness in the Turkish Lira. While the U.S. Fed increasing interest rates the past year has certainly helped fuel the climb of the USD/TRY, the Fed’s monetary policy is not the only culprit.

Traders looking to wager on the USD/TRY are likely not looking for calm conditions; they likely have the desire and experience to anticipate potential volatility.  Trading the USD/TRY must be done with conservative leverage and the use of risk-taking tools such as entry price, stop loss, and take profit orders are crucial. Quick results are certainly likely favored by traders of the USD/TRY who do not have deep pockets, but they must be prepared to be patient too.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates was widely expected yesterday, so the USD/TRY did not climb on the news. However, importantly, the USD/TRY has maintained its technical price range viewed from nearly every timeframe. The upwards movement of the USD/TRY is hit by reversals lower frequently – trading the USD/TRY is not a one-way street, and many times these lower moves are more violent than the incremental climbs the currency pair often displays. Trading the USD/TRY remains a wagering environment which is dangerous when not done correctly.

  • U.S jobs numbers will be published tomorrow and the results could spur on volatility within the USD/TRY.
  • The USD/TRY has climbed over the last week and continues to make resistance levels appear attractive and vulnerable, but traders should not be overly ambitious and willing to cash out winning bets quickly.

Current Resistance: 19.48500

Current Support: 19.47650

High Target: 19.49700

Low Target: 19.46600


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