The first thing you will have to ask yourself about gold going forward is whether or not the trade is a bit crowded at the moment. I certainly think you can make an argument for that, so I do anticipate that there is going to be at the very least some consolidation in the month of May for gold, if not some type of more significant pullback. Either way, I don’t necessarily want to short this market anytime soon, but I do recognize there is some risk to the downside.
While the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg talk about how the US dollar is going to continue to lose value, the reality is that it’s starting to show signs of life again in certain pairs. For example, the USD/JPY pair is starting to turn around and head higher, after a massive selloff. I think the US dollar is oversold and we may see that come back to bite the market during the month of May. I’m not looking for some type of massive selloff in other assets, just that markets get a little overdone at times, and have to correct themselves.
- The gold market should see a significant amount of support near the $1940 level, followed by the $1900 level.
- The 50-Week EMA is right around $1850 and rising.
- It would not surprise me at all to see some type of short-term selloff in gold to kick off the month, only to see buyers come back.
- The market was to break above the heights of mid-April, which could open up the door to $2100. Anything above there would become more or less a “buy-and-hold scenario.”
- We think we need to find more buyers to pick up the market between now and then.
At the end of the day, I anticipate that this market will be a “buy on the dip” market, but I think you need to let it pullback a bit more than it already has. Best case scenario is going to be that the market grinds sideways for a while, trying to work off some of the excess froth that we had built up in the market over the last several months, as gold has been the biggest trade for most participants out there.
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