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Cautious and Choppy Higher Values as Markets Grind


The USD/SGD has come off highs achieved yesterday and continues to produce a rather cautious choppy grind for speculators as they await data and Fed impetus.

The USD/SGD traded above the 1.33900 ratios briefly on Tuesday, a mark not traded in a sustained manner since the third week of March.  However, instead of moving higher after touching yesterday’s highs the USD/SGD began to reverse slightly lower again and is near the 1.33660 price as of this writing. Yesterday’s move higher did break the USD/SGD near-term price range with slightly higher results and continues to incrementally produce a cautious upwards climb.


While the USD/SGD has attained what can be interpreted as a move higher, the Forex pair however continues to show signs of cautiousness as financial houses wait on U.S data today, Thursday, and Friday, but more importantly the U.S Federal Reserve on the 3rd of May.  Consumer sentiment numbers via the CB Consumer Confidence report came in weaker than expected yesterday, but tomorrow’s Advance Gross Domestic Product results will be watched carefully for a correlation. If analysts see weaker growth from the U.S. they may feel it will hinder the U.S. Fed’s ability to maintain an aggressive interest rate stance.

While yesterday’s weaker consumer data may help propel a slight selloff of the USD/SGD, a complex puzzle continues to exist for traders to consider short term. The price action of the currency pair continues to display rather stark consolidation, the upwards movement could be interpreted as a reaction by financial houses who know the U.S Fed will increase interest rates by a quarter of a point next week, but remain unclear about what will happen in June.

  • Core Durable Goods statistics will come from the U.S. today, this may create a momentary flurry of activity if the number surprises, but it is Thursday’s growth data via the Advance GDP that investors are anxiously awaiting.
  • Friday will see inflation numbers from the U.S. via the Core PCE Price Index, after those results are published, traders may reposition within the USD/SGD before going into the weekend as they worry about the Federal Reserve.

The inability to sustain highs above the 1.33800 or even the 1.33700 price levels yesterday and lower movement early today in the USD/SGD suggests speculative investment houses remain cautious. Economic U.S. data the remainder of the week will have an effect, but the USD/SGD may continue to produce a rather consolidated price range. Risk-taking should be done with the knowledge that next week’s values will certainly see increased price velocity and the USD/SGD could break free of its rather tight range. Until the U.S. data finishes being published this week and the Fed acts on the 3rd of May, short-term traders should be ready for rather choppy results.

Current Resistance: 1.33690

Current Support: 1.33500

High Target: 1.33870

Low Target: 1.33060

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