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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Below $1.0990


Bulls continue to be unable to decisively break above the round number at $1.1000.

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My EUR/USD signal on 17th April was not triggered as the bullish price action took place well below the support level which I had identified at $1.0937.

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today.

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0999, $1.1025, or $1.1056.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0920, $1.0896, or $1.0878.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I wrote that the current price action was not bullish, but that it was probably worth respecting the long-term bullish trend die to the typical reliability of such trends in this currency pair.

This was a good call as even though the price fell that day, it went on to recover, and is trading now more or less where it was on the 17th at my last analysis.

The technical picture now sees the survival techniques of the long-term bullish trend, but for several days the price has been continuing a consolidation below $1.0990, clearly held down by the big round number at $1.1000 which I suspect is the barrier for some large options, and the writers of said options are likely selling spot EUR/USD to suppress the price.

This calls into question whether bulls have the muscle to make another meaningful breakout and to get the price established above $1.1000. This is doubtful, despite the general weakness of the US Dollar, at least before the German Preliminary CPI (inflation) data release due at the end of this week on Friday.

In the meantime, and especially today which looks likely to be a typically quiet, low volatility Monday, the best approach to trading this currency pair will be to scalp reversals in either direction, with bearish rejections of $1.0990 / $1.1000 looking especially attractive, targeting the nearest support level at $1.0920. If this support level is reached first, and produces a firm bounce, a long trade is also possible.

EUR/USD

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.

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