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EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast 9th April


After retesting early February highs on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, the EUR/USD did reverse slightly lower, but its bullish trend remains evident.

The EUR/USD will begin trading near the 1.08985 level tomorrow, after attaining a high around the 1.09745 mark on Tuesday.  Important jobs data came from the U.S. last week, but its statistics on Friday came in close to expectations as Forex trading conditions proved to be thin because of holiday markets. The start of this week will also likely see rather light trading, but speculators should expect more volume to start to trickle into Forex on Tuesday and the EUR/USD will likely react with some volatility.

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The ability to reach a high early last week not seen since early February remains enticing for day traders, who are optimistic about bullish technical charts which continue to show a rather pronounced move upwards for the EUR/USD.  Certainly, there have been reversals lower during the drive higher, but prevailing behavioral sentiment seemingly continues to bet on a stronger EUR/USD. Strom clouds are still hovering and nervous results could still erupt, but day traders may find betting on more upside with the EUR/USD attractive.

The U.S. will publish its CPI and PPI reports in the middle of this week.  The inflation reports via the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be delivered on this Wednesday and Thursday. The ability of the EUR/USD to continuously search for higher values may indicate analysts at financial institutions are having an effect on the outlook of nearby trading desks. The U.S. Federal Reserve is still thought to be in a position where it might raise interest rates in early May by 0.25%, but many financial institutions have priced in a less aggressive U.S. central bank to develop over the mid-term.

The reversal lower in the EUR/USD to close out the week was pronounced, but the selling was not violent. While the Non-Farm Employment Change numbers came in slightly better than anticipated, trading in the EUR/USD remained rather calm. Tomorrow’s trading will give another chance to react to last week’s data, but many traders will also start to focus on the U.S inflation data set to come on Wednesday and Thursday.

The inability of the EUR/USD to not stay above the 1.09000 level may make bullish EUR/USD traders nervous, but this may also present opportunities.  The forex pair did manage to climb firmly above the ratio early last week, but the selloff occurring afterwards was noticeable. The question is if the EUR/USD selloff happened because financial houses wanted to be more conservative regarding their buying before the Good Friday and Easter holidays took place, which seems like a possibility. Tomorrow’s opening in the EUR/USD should be watched by day traders, and perhaps into early Tuesday speculators may want to remain on the sidelines and see where the currency pair traverses.

  • The US will also release Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment numbers on Friday.
  • These numbers will show where the U.S economy is regarding consumer spending.
  • Weaker Retail numbers from the U.S could cause spark more buying of the EUR/USD.

The speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.08190 to 1.10210

Technical traders who take more than a one-day or weekly approach to their outlooks regarding long-term perceptions clearly have a bullish trend to gaze at regarding the results of the EUR/USD since the end of September 2022. However, day traders must always be prepared for the EUR/USD to reverse lower, because the daily gyrations of the Forex pair are fueled by behavioral sentiment generated from economic data and market conditions.

Support levels near the 1.08400 to 1.08200 levels should be watched this week; if they prove durable this could spark additional bullish reactions. A fall below 1.08200 could occur certainly but it would probably have to be triggered by higher-than-expected inflation in the U.S.

If CPI and PPI reports come in with weaker than anticipated results, this could fuel additional movement in the EUR/USD higher. A retest of last week’s highs could quickly escalate into targeted trading near the 1.10000 level if behavioral sentiment remains optimistic in the marketplace.

EUR/USD

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