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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Choppy, Wide Consolidation


The price is making wide swings but ultimately seems to be going sideways.

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My EUR/USD signal on 22nd March produced a nicely profitable long trade from the bullish doji which rejected the support level which I had identified at $1.0760 at the start of the London session that day.

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only. 

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0854 or $1.0937.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0821, $1.0780, or $1.0707.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I thought that the technical picture looked bullish. However, I expected that the price was likely to consolidate narrowly above $1.0760 or around this price area until the Fed’s release, and I was wrong about that, but correct to be bullish overall as the price made a strong rise that day.

The technical picture is less bullish and choppier, as the formerly strong Euro runs out of some steam, even as the US Dollar begins to weaken again in line with its long-term trend. The price is moving in wide swings. However, the line of least resistance still looks bullish as there is more support below that there is resistance above, although the price is currently caught within a narrow band between support and resistance, as shown in the price chart below.

It is hard to pick a direction for this currency pair today, and there is no major news scheduled. Therefore, the best trading strategy here today will be likely to be scalping reversals at any key support or resistance level, especially at the extremes.

I think long trades are a little more likely to work well than short trades.

EUR/USD

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the EUR or the USD.

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