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The Lira Continues to Decline


On the technical front, the USD/TRY declined slightly during today’s early trading, the pair settled near its all-time high, recording 19.23.

The risk is 0.50%.

  •  Entering a buy order pending order from the 19.00 level.
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 18.85 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips, and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 19.50.
  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 19.50 level.
  • The best points to place a stop loss close at  the 19.65 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips, and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 19.05.

The price of the TRY/USD declined during early trading this morning, coinciding with the decline in the ability of the Turkish Central Bank to control the exchange rate of the lira at less than levels of 19 liras per dollar. Those are the levels that the central bank maintained for several months until the earthquake struck the country during the past month. This caused several losses, including the volume of foreign exchange reserves with the Central Bank, which was reflected in the decline of the lira.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Agency published a report revealing that the Turkish Central Bank tightened its grip on transactions in the foreign exchange market with the aim of reducing the demand for foreign currencies during the period leading up to the expected presidential elections in less than two months, as most of the large foreign exchange exchanges through the central bank itself receded. , which tightens scrutiny of any large transfers.

Meanwhile, other reports revealed that commercial banks in the country were affected as a result of the widening gap between high-interest rates on deposits and low-interest rates on loans. This was a result of the unconventional policy pursued by the Turkish president, which many reports indicate that he will turn away from that policy if he succeeds in The election. In light of these economic conditions, the exchange rate of the lira is not expected to record any progress during the coming period, which will extend until mid-May.

On the technical front, the USD/TRY declined slightly during today’s early trading, the pair settled near its all-time high, recording 19.23. It traded at 19.13 levels at the time of writing, the pair finally succeeded in recording a daily closing outside the bullish price channel levels on the frame. Today’s time frame, the dollar keeps rising against the lira at a slow pace, as the pair trades above the support levels at 19.00, 18.90, and 18.80, respectively.

On the other hand, the price is settling below the resistance level at 19.23, which represents the highest price for the pair ever, as well as the pair is trading below the psychological resistance level at the integer number 19.50.

 The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 in the time frame of today, in a sign of the general bullish trend on the large time frame, while the price is trading between these moving averages on the 60-minute time frame, in a sign of the slow movement of the pair. Because of the divergence in monetary policy and the economic position of Turkey, and fall of the dollar against the lira represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

USD/TRY

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