The price of gold may remain in a limited range until a strong reaction on the sentiment of investors and markets on developments in the global banking system and any signals about the policy of global central banks.
- Recently, the gold (XAU/USD) price suffered consecutive losses in the trading sessions, as the banking crisis concerns faded away.
- Gold futures contracts suffered consecutive losses, as fears of the banking crisis diminished at the beginning of this week’s trading.
- As a result, the XAU/USD gold price fell to the support level of $1944 an ounce, before settling around the $1970 level at the time of writing the analysis.
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The price of the yellow metal enjoyed four straight weekly gains as market experts say gold prices have been a financial barometer of the health of the broader economy. The recent performance of the gold market comes after significant gains last week. From the beginning of the year 2023 to date, the price of gold is still up by about 7%. In the same performance, silver prices, the sister commodity to gold, struggled to stay above the level of $23 an ounce. The white metal has erased much of its losses year-to-date in 2023 and is now down just under 4% over the year.
The metals market has now declined as the banking storm appears to have abated. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Treasury Department are supporting the sector with fiscal support. The US government also helped broker a deal for First Citizen Bank to buy $72 billion in Silicon Valley assets for a whopping $16 billion discount.
But market experts do not believe that there will be a significant decline in gold prices in the future, mainly due to the Fed’s policy.
The US central bank has indicated that there will be another rate hike this year, which indicates that the US Federal Reserve has reached the peak of its tightening cycle and could cut interest rates as well. In fact, gold prices are sensitive to movements in interest rates because they can affect the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury market was mostly mixed, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding steady at 3.526%. The one-month yield was unchanged at 4.176%, while the 30-year note traded sideways at 3.762%. On another important note, the increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY) may also diminish if the crisis fades away. A weaker dollar is generally a bullish trend for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them cheaper for foreign investors to buy.
The DXY dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of currencies, fell below 103.00 with the beginning of this week’s trading. And it’s now down about 1% over the year.
In general, the market is interested in all the little news, from the US banking sector to the European financial industry.
Relative to other metal commodity prices, copper futures remained relatively unchanged at $4.0785 a pound. Palladium futures fell to $1,404.10 an ounce. Platinum futures fell to $977.10 an ounce.
In my technical point of view, only the performance on the daily chart below has changed, and despite the recent selling, the gold price is still on an upward path. There will be no first reversal of the trend without moving toward the support level of $1885 an ounce. The price of gold may remain in a limited range until a strong reaction on the sentiment of investors and markets on developments in the global banking system and any signals about the policy of global central banks.
At the same time period, a move towards the $1985 resistance level will be important for the bulls to complete the current path and return to the historic top of $2000 an ounce. One should be careful, as technical indicators are around overbought areas. In the event that the US dollar recovers, the price of gold may be exposed to profit-taking sales again.
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