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Sits at a Crucial Support Level


The AUD/USD pair pulled back sharply on Friday as concerns about the banking sector remained. 

  • Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6700.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6600.
  • Timeline: 1 day.
  • Set a sell-stop at 0.6620 and a take-profit at 0.6500.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.7025.

The AUD/USD is hovering near its lowest level since March 16 ahead of two important economic numbers from Australia. It was trading at 0.6650, which was a few points below last week’s high of 0.6760.

The AUD/USD has pulled back in the past few days as investors react to last week’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. In it, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% and pointed to more hikes in the coming months.

A few days before that, minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that the bank was nearing its hiking cycle. Therefore, the economic data scheduled for this week will provide more hints about what to expect in next week’s meeting.

The Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish the latest retail sales numbers on Tuesday. Economists expect that the country’s sales rose by 0.4% in February, lower than the previous month’s 1.9%.

These retail sales numbers will be followed by the latest consumer inflation numbers scheduled for Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that Australia’s inflation dropped once again from 7.4% to 7.1%. That reading will be much lower than the RBA’s target of 2.0%. In a note, analysts at NAB Bank said:

“What the services subcomponents say about inflation trends will be as important as the headline given the limitations of the monthly indicator.”

The AUD/USD pair will also react to the upcoming economic numbers from the US. The key data to watch will be US consumer confidence data by the Conference Board. Economists expect that the country’s consumer confidence dropped from 102.90 in February to 101.0 in March. These are important numbers because consumer spending is the biggest part of the American economy.

The AUD/USD pair pulled back sharply on Friday as concerns about the banking sector remained. As it dropped, it retested the key support level at 0.6630, which was along the lower side of the ascending channel shown in green. The pair remains slightly below the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the MACD has moved lower than the middle line.

Therefore, the pair will likely pull back on Monday as buyers attempt to retest the key resistance point at 0.6700. For the week, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout and move below the support at 0.6500.



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