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Likely Setting up for Consolidation

There are a lot of different things moving around at the moment, and volatility has been dangerously low over the last couple of days with the exception of Wednesday. 

  • The S&P 500 index has been consolidating in a choppy range, with the 4100 level serving as significant resistance.
  • The 200-Day EMA also offers a level of resistance, but the 4100 level is where sellers have stepped in multiple times.
  • The 4000 level is where the market is currently hanging around, and the 3900 level below could provide support.

If the market drops below 3900, there could be a move down to the 3800 level, which was a significant swing low. The market is volatile due to conflicting signals, with liquidity concerns and fears of banking issues and global economic slowdown driving it. It seems like the market is trying to establish a range, so there may be trading opportunities for range bounces.

The trading session on Wednesday was volatile, with an initial rally followed by sellers coming back into the market after the Federal Reserve meeting. However, nothing really changed, and the market is still bouncing around in a choppy consolidation area. The 4100 level is a significant resistance barrier, and the market will need to break through that level to see a sustained move higher. If we were to do so, then it would be more of a bigger “risk on market” in general, and therefore it would be likely seen across various markets, not just the S&P 500 or the greater stock market in general.

Pay close attention to the US dollar, because it will have a negative correlation to the S&P 500 as per usual, and of course whether or not there are any concerns in the banking sector going forward. Quite frankly, this is a market that is dancing on quite a bit of nerve at the moment, and therefore erratic movement would be expected. Longer-term, it’s possible that there will be other issues that pop up, such as a potential credit event. There are a lot of different things moving around at the moment, and volatility has been dangerously low over the last couple of days with the exception of Wednesday. This typically sets up for some type of negative move as we continue to see a lot of confusion. Ultimately, keep your position size reasonable, because we could see a lot of movement in both directions, causing losses if you are not careful in this type of environment.

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