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Break and Retest Points to More Upside


The GBP/USD pair reached an intraweek high of 1.2283 on Tuesday. 

  • Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2283.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.2200.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.
  • Set a sell-stop at 1.2150 and a take-profit at 1.2050.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.2250.

The GBP/USD price pulled back ahead of the upcoming UK consumer and producer inflation data. It dropped to a low of 1.2176, in line with my previous forecast. The pair will also react to the important Federal Reserve and Bank of England (BOE) decisions.

The GBP/USD exchange rate dialed back as traders repositioned for the upcoming UK inflation numbers. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the UK’s consumer price index rose by 0.6% on a month-on-month basis after falling by -0.6% in the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, inflation is expected to move from 10.1% to 9.9%.

The main catalyst for the pair will be core inflation, which strips the volatile food and energy prices. The median estimate of this figure is that core CPI rose from -0.9% to 0.8% in February. This, in turn, is expected to translate to a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.

These inflation figures will be important because they will be followed by the second interest rate decision of the Bank of England (BoE). A stronger inflation reading will mean that the BoE could follow the footsteps of the European Central Bank (ECB) and deliver a 0.505 hike.

The most important event to watch on Wednesday will be the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The consensus among most traders is that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25% as it balances the fight against inflation with the need for financial stability.

Most analysts believe that this will be the most consequential decision by the Fed this year because of the fragility of the banking sector. In the past two weeks, key banks like Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse have all fallen.

The GBP/USD pair reached an intraweek high of 1.2283 on Tuesday. It then pulled back and retested the key support level at 1.2200, the highest point last week, and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair remains slightly above the 50-period and 25-period exponential moving averages (EMA). It has also moved above the Ichimoku Cloud.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bullish trend since it has done a break and retest pattern. If this happens, the pair will likely retest the intraweek high of 1.2283.



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