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Trend Lower Past Week but Major Risk Event is Here


The USD/CAD has turned in a choppy lower trend the past handful of days, but the currency pair remains highly priced as a major risk event looms.

The USD/CAD is near the 1.37075 level as of this writing, this as the broad Forex market anticipates the U.S Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement later today. Nervous sentiment has gripped the broad markets for nearly two weeks because of the banking crisis which has caused financial institutions to reconsider their outlooks. The U.S. Fed’s actions and rhetoric today will certainly affect the USD/CAD and speculators need to be prepared.



Today could prove to be a risk taker’s delight if they crave danger and want to pursue the USD/CAD.  Analysts seem to be unsure if the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter of a point today. The central bank is confronted with the fragile behavioral sentiment, but given the Fed’s past track record (and this is not meant as a compliment), there is a possibility once again the Federal Reserve is not fully in tune with economic reality. The Fed may believe they know their perceived important data and what this means for the future of the U.S. business landscape, but over the past couple of years, they have a history of being wrong.

I believe the Fed will raise interest rates today. They might give lip service to the potential of pausing interest rate hikes near-term, but they may actually let their arrogance get in the way and remain stubborn regarding their monetary policy. If the Fed raises rates and sounds aggressive the USD/CAD could climb higher and test important resistance. It must be said, that my believing doesn’t equate into knowing, I do NOT know what the U.S Federal Reserve will do today.

  • If the U.S. Fed announces they are going not going to raise interest rates today and halt further hikes as they monitor the banking sector and broad U.S. economy this would be a good thing.
  • A halt of interest rate hikes could cause a bearish trend to reignite quickly in the USD/CAD.
  • If the Fed were to say they are not going to raise rates today, financial houses would likely interpret this as the Federal Reserve accepting they must start to change their monetary policy.

The next couple of hours in the USD/CAD might actually take on a consolidated appearance, but traders should not be fooled.  Within the flip of a switch, the broad Forex market could turn into a very violent landscape. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s actions today could have a profound effect on the USD/CAD and traders will need risk management working in full. Support and resistance levels may become extremely vulnerable depending on the results.

Current Resistance: 1.37200

Current Support: 1.36990

High Target: 1.38550

Low Target: 1.35880



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