The only thing I think you can count on is that we are going to get a lot of choppiness, but we could see a big move if the Federal Reserve shocks the markets.
- The euro has rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the ¥142 level.
- Furthermore, it has pierced the 50-Day EMA, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of short-term hesitation.
- If we can break about that, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the ¥145 level, an area that obviously has a lot of psychology attached to it.
Furthermore, we have seen a lot of selling pressure there previously, so if we can break above there, then it’s likely that we could go much higher. The ¥140 level underneath has been important a couple of times this past week, so it does make a certain amount of sense that it is our short-term support level. That being said, if we break down below the ¥139 level, then it opens up the possibility of testing out the ¥138 level after that. Breaking down below the ¥138 level then has this market looking to the ¥135 level.
The Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control, keeping the 10 year JGB down to 50 basis points or less. Anytime interest rates around the world start to rise, that works against the Japanese and, as the Bank of Japan could be forced print more Japanese yen in order to buy unlimited bonds. That’s been the scenario for a while now, but it’s probably worth noting that you can make an argument for a large consolidation area and some of the JPY-denominated pears, such as the EUR/JPY market.
We are sitting between the 50-Day EMA above and the 200-Day EMA underneath. Ultimately, I do believe that this market has make a bigger move, but it will probably have a lot to do with the interest rate market more than anything else, which of course has a huge day on Wednesday, as Jerome Powell will be not only giving an interest rate decision, but also having a press conference and a statement being released that could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where rates may go globally in the near term. Alternatively, the only thing I think you can count on is that we are going to get a lot of choppiness, but we could see a big move if the Federal Reserve shocks the markets.
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