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Facing Quite a Bit of Fear

Interestingly, despite expectations of 100 basis points of rate cuts between now and a year from now, the market is not responding positively. 

  • The S&P 500, one of the world’s most closely watched stock market indices, has been facing headwinds in recent trading sessions.
  • Initially attempting to rally, the market has been struggling to push past the 3975 level for several days in a row.
  • However, recent developments in the banking sector have added to the market’s troubles. News that Saudi financiers are no longer willing to support Credit Suisse has raised concerns about contagion and added to the market’s negative sentiment.


Given this situation, it’s no surprise that traders are looking for safety and trying to avoid risk. The 50-Day EMA, which sits at the 4000 level and is dropping, is likely to pose a major barrier for the market to overcome. Additionally, the 3800 level, which has attracted a lot of attention in the past, could act as a potential trapdoor, leading to a sell-off if it is breached. In fact, if the S&P 500 breaks down below the 3800 level, we could see the index drop to the 3600 level, an area that had previously been a major support. Anything below there could kick off a catastrophic drop in this market, but I’m not necessarily expecting that currently.

Interestingly, despite expectations of 100 basis points of rate cuts between now and a year from now, the market is not responding positively. The reasoning behind these expected rate cuts, that the economy is in worse shape than originally thought, is starting to show itself in the market. As a result, interest rate cuts are being seen as a sign of fear, rather than a bullish run. While some investors may be hopeful for a rebound, caution is advised, as there seems to be so much out there that could throw a spanner in the works that trading will continue to be very difficult.

Currently, shorting the market seems to be the best course of action, although it’s important to recognize that hope springs eternal on Wall Street. Traders need to be very cautious about holding onto short positions for too long, particularly in a market that is as volatile as the current one. The situation is a fluid one and changes can happen quickly, so it’s important to stay abreast of the latest developments and adjust your strategy accordingly. As always, diversification is key, and investors should make sure they have a balanced portfolio that can weather any potential storms.

S&P 500

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