Be very cautious, but ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where you probably have a short-term bounce coming.
The US dollar has bounced a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as the massive selling has abated. The USD/CHF currency pair had fallen on hard times of the last couple days, but it looks as if this point in time the 0.91 level is an area that is crucial, as we have seen a lot of support there previously. We are close to the bottom of the longer-term consolidation area, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of a bounce. I also believe that the 0.90 level is an area where a lot of traders will be paying close attention to as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore a lot of interest will be paid to that general vicinity.
- When you look at this chart, you can see that the 50-Day EMA sits around the 0.93 level, which of course will offer a little bit of a barrier, and a lot of attention will be paid to that indicator.
- If we can break above there, then we have a block of selling pressure that extends all the way to the 200-Day EMA, roughly at the 0.9450 level.
- In other words, even if we do bounce in here, I don’t think that there is a lot of clarity to get above there.
- If we do take off above there, then it would generally be followed by the US dollar strengthening and against almost everything else.
At this point, I don’t know that we break down significantly, but we might be trying to form some type of consolidation area in this general vicinity. If that’s going to be the case, then it does make a lot of sense that we would see a lot of back and forth over the next couple of days. We are oversold, so it does make a significant amount of sense that at the very least we would get some type of relief rally. Keep in mind that the Swiss franc is highly tied to the European Union as well, so you cannot totally ignore the situation in the European Union at the same time, despite the fact that we are talking about the Swiss currency here. Be very cautious, but ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where you probably have a short-term bounce coming.
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