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Ultimately, position sizing will be more important than anything else.
- The US dollar has pulled back just a bit against the Swiss franc during trading on Wednesday, as the 200-Day EMA has caused a little bit of resistance.
- By doing so, it looks like the market is willing to stay between the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA underneath.
- Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, which makes a certain amount of sense considering that both of these are considered to be safety currencies.
The candlestick from the previous session was obviously very bullish, but at this point it looks like that 200-Day EMA is going to continue to be a bit of an issue. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, then it’s very possible that the US dollar will head to the 0.95 level, perhaps even a move to the 0.96 level. The 0.96 level above being broken opens up a potential move to much higher levels, possibly even to the $1.00 level. The $1.00 level course will attract a lot of attention, so I think it would be difficult to get above there.
Keep in mind that the Swiss have to deal with the fact that most of their economy is tied to the European Union, which of course is starting to struggle a bit. In general, this is a market that continues to see a lot of choppy behavior, but that is rather normal for this market, as it does tend to be much choppier than many of the other major currency pairs. Ultimately, I do think that the US dollar will move in the same direction against most currencies, so you need to pay attention to what’s going on in other pairs such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.
In the short term, I do think that we continue to try to build up enough momentum to go to the upside, but breaking down below the bottom of the candlestick from Tuesday could open up a move down to the 0.92 level. Breaking down below that level that opens up the possibility of even further selling, but I do believe that the 0.90 level underneath will continue to be a major barrier that the Swiss franc cannot overcome against the US dollar anytime soon. Ultimately, position sizing will be more important than anything else.
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