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Near-Term Range Traversing Nervous Middle Ground

The USD/JPY has reversed lower from early morning highs and is hovering around values traded at the end of last week, as speculators wait for volatility to come.

The USD/JPY is near the 136.700 ratios as of this writing and is lingering around values produced last Friday. However, traders should not look at the current prices and fall into the trap of believing this means all is well for the USD/JPY and tranquility rules the air. Early this morning Gross Domestic Product numbers came in weaker than expected for Japan, and the lack of growth in the nation is alarming.


The yen is a popular asset during turbulent times.

Early yesterday as Japanese financial institutions reacted to U.S Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s rather aggressive monetary policy insights, the USD/JPY climbed to a high around the 137.915 mark. Yes, the USD/JPY has traded lower since then, but the downward price action has not come without a fight, and after falling to a low late on Wednesday near the 136.485 realms, the currency pair climbed again and hit approximately 137.440. While the USD/JPY has come off of these short-term highs, market sentiment remains fragile in the broad Forex market and for the Japanese Yen.

Risk Management is going to prove very important for day traders today and tomorrow.  Early on Friday, the Bank of Japan will deliver its interest rate pronouncements and monetary policy. As the Japanese Yen weakens and GDP numbers show a hint of recessionary pressure in Japan the BoJ will be forced to comment, but it is very unlikely they will make any significant changes.

However, later on, Friday, the U.S. will release its Non-Farm Employment Change and Hourly Earnings reports. Suspicious traders who listened to U.S Fed Chairman Powell speak the last two days may be feeling quite nervous about what will develop in the USD/JPY. The U.S. central bank chief hinted that the next interest rate hike will be decided upon after data has been viewed. The Fed might have a notion that tomorrow’s jobs numbers and earnings statistics will come in stronger than anticipated. If this occurs, the USD/JPY could find more buyers.

Traders looking to participate in the USD/JPY are urged to be cautious. The USD/JPY has the ability to jump with violent reactions when the impetus hits Forex. Tomorrow’s Bank of Japan rhetoric and the U.S. economic data are certain to create a violent mix within the USD/JPY. If U.S data does come in stronger than expected there is reason to suspect high water marks produced on Wednesday could be challenged again near-term.

  • The USD/JPY has been trending higher for more than a month and financial institutions remain nervous, regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy combined with the dovish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan.
  • If the U.S. Fed is given ammunition to be more aggressive regarding interest rates tomorrow, the USD/JPY could create fast price velocity.
  • Traders who are contrarians might think the USD/JPY has been overbought, but should be extremely cautious today and tomorrow, using narrow targets and plenty of risk management.

Current Resistance: 136.910

Current Support: 136.480

High Target: 138.0120

Low Target: 136.215


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