“Market memory” could come into the picture, offering selling pressure.
- The USD/CHF currency pair has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday, as the 200-Day EMA continues to offer a bit of resistance.
- With that being the case, it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noise, has the 50-Day EMA sits below, near the 0.93 handle.
- Currently, it looks as if the market is going to continue to see a lot of back and forth as we try to determine whether or not we have enough momentum to go higher.
Recently, we have seen the US dollar recover a bit against the Swiss franc, as well as many other currencies around the world. Whether or not that sticks remains to be seen, but we have seen a lot of interest-rate movement in America, as they have been rising. That of course makes quite a bit of upward pressure on the US dollar in general, and therefore it’s likely going to be a situation where we will move back and forth due to what interest rates are going.
If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, then we will test the 0.95 level. The 0.95 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has seen a lot of noise in the past. “Market memory” could come into the picture, offering selling pressure. If we were to break above the 0.95 handle, then it’s likely that we would go looking to the 0.98 level, which is the top of those 2 massive candlesticks that sent the US dollar much lower against the Swiss franc.
The 50-Day EMA underneath could offer a bit of support, and if we were to break down below there it opens up the possibility of a drop back down to the 0.91 handle. This is an area that had been support on long-term charts, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see traders jump into this market based upon that potential buying opportunity. If we break down below there, then the US dollar will unravel. That being said, keep an eye on what the US dollar is doing overall, because it tends to move in the same direction against all major currencies, although this particular pair does tend to be a little bit slower than many of the other ones.
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