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Bearish Breakout to 22,000 Likely

The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few weeks. 

  • Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 22,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 24,264.
  • Timeline: 1 day.
  • Set a buy-stop at 23,600 and a take-profit at 24,300.
  • Add a stop-loss at 22,000.

Bitcoin and other risky assets like stocks plunged last week amid rising concerns about monetary policy. The BTC/USD pair retreated to a low of 22,523, the lowest point since February 15. It has had a major reversal after it peaked at 25,266 last Sunday.

The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few weeks. This rally happened after the pair moved to a low of 15,384, the lowest point in November last year. It has moved above the key resistance level at 21,546, the highest point on November 5. It has made a break and retest pattern by retesting the key level at 21,546.

Bitcoin also seems to be forming a double-top pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. At the same time, the pair has formed a golden cross, which happens when the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. A golden cross is usually a bullish sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued moving downwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next support at 21,546. A move below that level will see the pair crash to the next psychological level at 20,000. The stop-loss for this trade will be at 24,100.


The BTC/USD pair has been in a bearish trend after peaking at about 25,371 last Sunday. It has dropped below the key support point at 23,371, which is at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair has moved below the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling. It has formed what looks like a bearish pennant pattern.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key level at about 21,350, the lowest level on February 13. This view will be invalidated at 24,265. This is an important level since it was the highest point on February 2.


The main risk for Bitcoin and other risky assets is the Federal Reserve. Data published on Friday showed that the personal consumption index (PCE) remained at an elevated level. This is an important figure since it is the Fed’s favourite gauge of inflation. A week earlier, the US published strong consumer inflation data. Therefore, investors are resetting their expectations about the Federal Reserve.

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