The GBP/USD initially tried to rally during the trading week but has given back the gains to form an inverted hammer. This is not a good look, and it does suggest that we are going to continue to see a lot of negativity. At this point, I think a move below the 1.1850 level is what people are waiting on, and when that happens, I think that we see a pretty significant drop down to the 1.15 level. On the other hand, if we can break above the top the candlestick then we could threaten the double top near the 1.24 level, but that’s the least likely scenario.
The EUR/USD initially tried to rally during the week as well but has given back quite a bit of the gain to also form an inverted hammer. This suggests that perhaps there will be a lot of negativity out there, and therefore I think you got a situation where you need to pay close attention to the 50-Week EMA, because a move below that level opens up the possibility of taking out the 1.05 level. Anything below that level then opens up a significant amount of selling pressure down to the 1.0250 area. If we break above the top of the candlestick for the week, then we may threaten the 1.10 level, but that seems to be very unlikely at this point.
The NZD/USD initially tried to rally during the week we gave back gains to show signs of hesitation again. By doing so, it also looks as if it is going to favor the US dollar and if we break down below the 0.62 level, I suspect that the New Zealand dollar is probably going to drop about 5 handles. The 0.65 level has offered a major resistance barrier, so if we continue to stay underneath there, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we start falling again.
The AUD/USD initially tried to rally during the week as well, but as we have seen 3 times already, the US dollar picked up momentum later in the week. By doing so, the market looks as if it is going to continue to see a lot of negativity, and therefore if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, I suspect that we are going to go look into the 0.67 level underneath. Breaking above the top of the candlestick would open up the possibility of attacking the 0.7150 level, but I just don’t see that happening without some type of external pressure.
The CAD/JPY has rallied against the Japanese yen to attack the ¥100 area. We could not break above there, but for me that is essentially an area where we need to pay close attention to. If we can break above ¥100, then I don’t see any reason why this market will go look into the 140 and level. On the other hand, people back then I think there was enough support underneath and noise that it would probably just be a little bit of a pullback more than anything else. For what it is worth, the Japanese yen is on its heels against almost everything.
The USD/CAD has rallied to threaten the 1.35 level late in the week, an area that has caused a lot of noise in the past. Because of this, think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see market participants try to send this market higher, perhaps looking at the 1.3750 level. Breaking above there opens up a move to the 1.40 level. At this point, I think the 1.3250 area is massive support based upon the previous action.
The USD/CHF continues to be very noisy, as we are hanging around the 0.92 level. This is a market that has seen a lot of noise here previously, so I do think that we are in the midst of trying to turn things around. However, I don’t necessarily think that we have a lot of momentum or anything in this market that suggests you should be going into it heavily. I think you are probably going to see a lot of back-and-forths sideways trading, so short-term traders will probably like this market.
Gold markets have fallen rather hard during the week but did find a bit of support just above the 50-Week EMA. Ultimately, I think we are trying to turn things around, as it looks like the market overall is going to be heading for safety, which in and of itself might make gold attractive just as it makes the US dollar attractive. I still believe that the $1900 level is going to be difficult to get above.