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Oil Needs to Prove Itself


At this point, it’s a matter of proving itself to me before I risk any serious money.

  • The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially fell to reach the 50-Day EMA before turning around and bouncing.
  • The market looks very interested in the $80 level, but I also recognize that there has been a lot of noise above that extends to the $82.50 level.
  • This is an area that I think will be difficult to break above, but if we do, that would obviously be a very bullish sign.
  • At that point, I would anticipate that the crude oil markets would go looking to the 200-Day moving average.

Crude oil Today’s Breakout and Breakdown Scenarios

If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then it’s likely that we go down to the $77.50 level, where we had seen a bit of noise previously. Breaking down below there could open up the possibility of a move down to the $75 level, and then possibly down to the $72.50 level. Because of this, I think you got a situation where you need to be cautious, because we are heading into a buzz saw of resistance, so I think it does make a certain amount of sense we pull back. After all, we have been bullish multiple times in the past, but we have also seen but a bit of resistance every time we do rally.

We are still trying to figure out whether or not the global economy is going to demand more crude oil and energy on the whole, because while China reopens and that is bullish for crude oil demand, there are also concerns about the overall global economy slowing down. If it does in fact do so, then it’s very likely that we will continue to see crude oil lag. The demand for crude oil will eventually pick back up, but right now there are so many central banks around the world tightening monetary policy that is difficult to get overly aggressive with any crude oil position one way or the other. I think we probably stay within a range in general, at least until the market proves me wrong. Once it does, I am more than willing to trade in the appropriate direction. At this point, it’s a matter of proving itself to me before I risk any serious money.

WTI Crude Oil Chart

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