Make sure that your position sizing allows for wild swings, because if we are in the fact of turning the trend around, that’s typically a noisy affair.
- The USD/CHF currency pair has rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, as the 0.91 level has offered significant support.
- At this point, now we have a lot of technical resistance above that we may or may not be able to take out to the upside.
- If we can break above the overhead resistance, then the market could very well go higher.
Choppy and Noisy Behavior in the Short Term
The 50-Day EMA sits just above the 0.93 level and is dropping. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that the market is looking to the 0.94 level. Any clearance of the 0.94 level has me looking to buy this market for a longer-term bounce, perhaps back to the parity level. After all, this is a market that’s been in a major consolidation region for some time, therefore I think we’ve got a situation where we could see a nice move.
In the short term, we may pull back to show signs of hesitation again, but the area between the 0.91 and 0.90 level is going to be very difficult to break down through. After all, the situation is tenuous at best, but I think you’ve got a situation where if the US dollar starts to take off, the Swiss Frank of course will get hammered as a result. Although the Swiss now offers little bit of a return in yield, the reality is that it’s much less than the United States, and therefore it does make a lot of sense that we would see this continue to be a situation where the US dollar rallies.
In the short term, I would expect to see a lot of choppy and noisy behavior, and therefore I think it’s going to be difficult to see a reason to pile into the huge position. I would wait to see whether or not the market rally a bit, and then add to my position as it is proven to be correct. All things being equal, this is a situation that you need to have more of a longer-term outlook for this market, and therefore I do believe that you’ve got a situation where the noisy behavior is just simply a cost of doing business, so make sure that your position sizing allows for wild swings, because if we are in the fact of turning the trend around, that’s typically a noisy affair.
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