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Market Bounces from a Major Figure


Ultimately, with the Non-Farm Payroll announcement coming out on Friday, it’s probably a situation where we are going to have a lot of noise more than anything else.

  • The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, only to turn around and show signs of life again.
  • The $75 level is an area that people will have to pay close attention to, because not only is it a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but is also an area where we have seen noise previously.
  • Bouncing and forming a bit of a hammer opens the possibility that we are in fact trying to bounce from a bigger level.

You can see that the market previously had an uptrend line, and now this uptrend line has offered enough support to turn things around. We break above the top of the hammer, then it’s likely that we could go to the 50-Day EMA above, which sits just below the $80 level. $80 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure as well, and of course, an area where we’ve seen some noise.

Noise Ahead

Ultimately, with the Non-Farm Payroll announcement coming out on Friday, it’s probably a situation where we are going to have a lot of noise more than anything else. With the jobs number, the idea of whether the Federal Reserve will have to tighten even further. At this point though, I think people are starting to completely ignore the Federal Reserve, so that may not be the issue. The question is whether the economy will start to grow. After all, the crude oil market is the lifeblood of the economy and therefore you need to pay close attention to whether there’s going to be demand for crude. The transportation of goods and services is one of the easiest ways to measure how an economy is performing, so if there is a lot of economic activity, there will be more demand, higher prices, and so on.

At this point, I think we are more likely than not going to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore you must be cautious about putting too much money into the market in any one shot. However, if we were to break above the $82 level, then I think it’s likely that we go much higher, and perhaps even open the possibility of a move to the 200-Day EMA. If we break down below the $75 level, that could open a lot of selling, so it would be a major negative event.

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