I would expect a little bit of volatility, but at the end of the day, we will have to see how the whole thing closes for the weekend because that will tell you what institutional money is going.
The BTC/USD market has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see US dollar weakness overall. At this point, a lot of people are betting that the Federal Reserve is not willing to stay for as tight as they say, and therefore people are betting on loose monetary policy.
That obviously helps the Bitcoin market because it thrives on liquidity. That being said, if we continue to see monetary policy tighten a bit, that will more likely than not cause a bit of trouble for this market. The $25,000 level above is a major psychological barrier, and we are already starting to hear a lot of the Bitcoin maximalists out there chirping about the rest of the world as we are starting to “go to the moon”, so now I think it’s time to put up or shut up, so to speak.
Volatility Ahead
- Underneath, we have the 200-Day EMA, sitting right around the 21,500 level. Furthermore, we have the 50-Day EMA reaching toward the stat area, sitting just above the $20,000 level.
- This is an area that would attract a lot of attention, and if we were to bring the market back below there, it would more likely than not cause quite a bit of negativity.
- In that general vicinity, I would expect to see a lot of downward pressure and further selling, perhaps opening up Bitcoin for a move down to the $16,000 level.
On the other hand, if we can break above the $25,000 level, that would be a huge victory for the Bitcoin faithful and would almost certainly send more money into the market through FOMO. Because of this, we need to watch how this plays out over the weekend, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to do everything, we can get to that $25,000 level. Keep in mind that the Non-Farm Payroll announcement is on Friday, and that will have a major influence on what we do during the day. Because of this, I would expect a little bit of volatility, but at the end of the day, we will have to see how the whole thing closes for the weekend because that will tell you what institutional money is going. We are facing major headwinds, but if we get above that $25,000 level, then I think that would be a very bullish sign.
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