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USD/JPY Forex Signal: Bullish Consolidation Above ¥129.41


Dollar support and risk-on sentiment slowly pushing price higher.

My previous USD/JPY signal on 18th January was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support levels I had identified at ¥129.60 and ¥128.47 were reached that day.

Today’s USD/JPY Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday. 

Short Trade Idea

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of ¥131.32, ¥131.90, or ¥132.88.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of ¥129.41, ¥128.88, or ¥127.47.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

USD/JPY Analysis

In my previous forecast for the USD/JPY currency pair, I wrote that I saw the resistance level at ¥131.32 as likely to be a pivotal point. I thought that the short-term price direction looked quite uncertain, but as we had a long-term bearish trend, I was happy to look for a short trade entry from any of the resistance levels.

This was a good call, as I was right about the uncertainty of direction as the price has continued to chop around within broadly the same zone ever since. However, the day’s downwards movement did not reject any resistance levels, so there was no opportunity that day for a short trade entry.

The technical picture here has become more bullish, as although the price has been reluctant to get established above ¥131.32, it has firmed up above the support at ¥129.41 and continues to consolidate within this area.

The Forex market is going to be dominated today by anticipation of the later FOMC release, which is expected to bring a rate hike of 0.25% and of course a statement which will be closely analysed by the market for clues regarding potential rate hikes or cuts. This means that until 7pm London time, the price is likely to consolidate and remain trading between the nearest support and resistance levels.

Either before the FOMC release or soon afterwards, the best opportunity will be likely to be a reversal from any support or resistance level which is reached.

If the FOMC statement is bullish on no more rate hikes and optimistic about the US economy, we will be likely to see the US Dollar drop, but it is likely to lose considerably more value against other “risky” currencies instead of the Japanese Yen, so pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD will probably be more interesting to trade in this scenario than the USD/JPY currency pair.

USD/JPY

Regarding the USD, there will be releases of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast at  1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job data at 3pm, and then very importantly the FOMC Federal Funds Rate and Statement. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the JPY.

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